A Leader-followers game of emergency preparedness for adverse events
Natural disasters occur across the globe, resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year. Effective preparation before a disaster can help to minimize damages, economic impact, and loss of human life. This paper uses a game theory framework to set up a leader-followers model for resource distribution to several geographic zones before an adverse event. The researchers model each individual's behaviour, that some population members may choose to prepare in advance of an event, whereas others will wait until the last minute. Failure to prepare in advance could result in a significant loss due to the chance that supplies may no longer be available. Numerical simulations were run to determine how the leader should distribute supplies to maximize the preparedness of the overall population. It was found that population size is the most significant factor for supply distribution. The model was extended to include a "high-risk" portion of the population, and to maximize the preparedness of that group. Much of the current resource allocation research focuses on the logistics and economics of supply distribution, but this paper demonstrates that social aspects should also be considered.