Operational risk quantification using extreme value theory and copulas: from theory to practice
Speaker:
Elise Gourier, ESSEC Business School
Date and Time:
Friday, March 26, 2010 - 2:00pm to 2:50pm
Location:
Fields Institute, Room 230
Abstract:
In this talk we present an empirical study pointing out several pitfalls of the standard methodologies for quantifying operational losses. Firstly, we use Extreme Value Theory to model real heavy-tailed data. We show that using the Value-at-Risk as a risk measure may lead to a mis-estimation of the capital requirements. In particular, we examine the issues of stability and coherence and relate them to the degree of heavy-tailedness of the data. Secondly, we introduce dependence between the business lines using Copula Theory. We show that standard economic thinking about risk diversification may be inappropriate when infinite-mean distributions are involved, as it is standard in operational risk.