Time-Aware Subscription Prediction Model for User Acquisition in Digital News Media
User acquisition is one of the most challenging problems for online news providers. In fact, due to availability of different news media, users have a lot of choices in selecting the news source. To date, most of digital news portals have tried to approach the solution indirectly by targeting the user satisfaction through the recommendation systems. In contrast, we address the problem directly by identifying valuable visitors who are likely potential subscribers in the future. First, we suggest that the decision for subscription is not a sudden, instantaneous action, but is the informed decision based on positive experience with digital medium. As such, we propose effective engagement measures and show that they are effective in building the predictive model for subscription. We design a model that not only predicts the potential subscribers but also answers queries about the subscription occurrence time. The proposed model can be used to predict the subscription time and recommend accurately the “potential users” to the current marketing campaign. We evaluate the proposed model using a real dataset from The Globe and Mail which is a major newspaper in Canada. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the traditional state-of-the-art approaches significantly.