A mathematical approach to study loss of honeybee colonies infested with it varroa destructor and deadly viruses
Honeybee (Apis mellifera) colonies continue to experience high annual losses that remain poorly explained. Numerous interacting pressures including pests, pathogens, pesticides and climate change have been linked to the losses. In this project, we study a mathematical model for the honeybees-varroa destructor-virus complex in which, based on division of labour, the bee population is divided into two categories: hive bees and foragers. The model is based on our previous work and consists of nonlinear ordinary differential equations for the dependent variables: uninfected hive bees, uninfected foragers, infected hive bees, virus-carrying mites and, virus-free mites. The main objective of the model is to study the interplay between disease infestation and forager loss in a honeybee colony. The model is focused on Acute Bee Paralysis Virus and is studied with a combination of analytical and computational techniques.We observe that the disease cannot be fought off in the absence of varroacide treatment. However, if the treatment is strong enough and if the virus-carrying mites become virus-free at a rate faster than the mite birth rate, the disease can be fought off. The critical forager loss due to homing failure, above which the colony fails, is calculated using simulation experiments for disease-free, treated and untreated mite-infested, and treated virus-infested colonies. A virus-infested colony without varroacide treatment fails regardless of the forager mortality rate.