The dynamic transition between local and global minimizers in the Ginzburg-Landau theory of superconductivity is a challenging direction of research. In this talk, we will present a heuristic model equation that describes the dynamics of either a vortex that is close to the boundary or dipoles with small inter vortex separation. We then consider a small random perturbation of this equation and study the asymptotic noise regime under which vortices nucleate. This is joint work with Gautam Iyer, CMU.